Less than a year after assuming prime ministership, Yoshihide Suga’s abrupt decision to step down and not to run the election for the LDP’s president post is a critical development in the changing Japanese political landscape. Suga’s sudden resignation has obviously changed the stakes intensifying the race for the premiership. Suga took office in mid-September a year ago, succeeding the deeply charismatic leader Shinzo Abe who resigned due to health problems. Suga’s early departure raises the prospect of a return to the revolving-door leadership in Japan that marked the period of instability before Abe’s nearly eight consecutive years in power. That phase of leadership crisis in Japan was particularly evident with the rise and fall of six prime ministers in six years, during 2006-2011, including an earlier stint by Abe himself. Thereafter the LDP returned to power under Abe in 2012 who went on to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister.
In many respects, Suga’s quick downfall could be attributed to timing. The term of the Lower House of the Diet ends in late October and national elections for the new Parliament need to be held by late November. In such a scenario, Suga’s not seeking re-election as the head of the ruling party LDP is largely seen as a political decision so that the LDP can have a fresh leader before the elections.
It is difficult to characterise Suga’s short reign. When Abe descended, Suga, who was the chief spokesman for Abe was able to garner support from the party bosses for assuming premiership as he was perceived to be malleable and willing to carry on Abe’s policies. Moreover, early in his tenure, Suga enjoyed support ratings as high as 70 percent as the Japanese electorate perceived him to be a leader from the common people (Suga belonged to an agrarian family in northern Japanese prefecture of Akita.), as compared to his predecessor Abe who hailed from blue-blooded political family. When Suga began his tenure, he pledged to prioritise the fight against the pandemic while keeping society as open as possible and introduced a series of pragmatic measures including administrative reforms and digital transformation. However, as time progressed, the country’s struggles with the pandemic left the Suga administration deeply unpopular.
Public frustrations with the Suga administration mounted as Japan, which had managed the Covid situation quite well in 2020, could not accelerate its vaccination program in comparison with the other rich countries during his stint as Japan’s premier. Moreover, continued economic restrictions left the people feeling weary. Suga’s support ratings slid rapidly over his administration’s measures to curb the pandemic which were criticised by the Japanese medical community and the media as too small and too slow to prevent fresh outbreaks. Prime Minister Suga failed to ramp up vaccination program largely because the vaccinations were held up by the Japanese bureaucracy with requirements for domestic clinical testing and limits on who could administer the vaccines. Suga’s ratings plummeted further amidst concerns that his administration was moving ahead with the Olympics. Suga’s administration also lapsed into poor crisis communication and mixed messaging. For instance, his cabinet encouraged domestic tourism in spite of the pandemic by promoting a nationwide travel campaign, “Go To Travel”, subsidised by the government at a time when Covid cases were rising sharply in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures. Faced with stiff criticism from the Japanese medical community, the Suga administration eventually called off its campaign promoting domestic travel, but not before it factored in causing the pandemic’s third wave in the country. As infections surged and hospitals switched to disaster mode, Suga rarely spoke directly to the people to explain his government’s efforts to address the crisis. An uncharismatic leader, Suga left the task of communicating with the public to his cabinet ministers and medical experts.
Initiatives such as promoting domestic tourism amidst the pandemic and staging the Olympics seem to be the two most debilitating factors contributing to the Suga administration’s collapse. Even after Japan’s very strong performance at the Tokyo Olympics, Prime Minister Suga’s approval ratings reached a record low plunging below 30 percent because staging a massive sporting event as the Olympics which involved thousands of people entering Japan amidst the pandemic went against the public’s wishes. With widespread dissatisfaction vis-a-vis the government’s response to the pandemic Suga apparently decided that he had no viable path to sustaining his administration.
In terms of political stability in Japan Suga’s decision to step down is crucial. His resignation not only helped in avoiding internal instability within the party but also enabled an orderly succession. This has bolstered the LDP’s core competency which is to preserve its power as the ruling party. If Suga had stayed in power, in spite of the severe public resentment vis-à-vis his Cabinet, the LDP could have lost seats in the national elections. Post-election a weakened LDP rule would have contributed to increased political instability in the country.
There is no clear frontrunner in the race to replace Suga as party leader which culminates in a vote on September 29th. Fumio Kishida, the former foreign minister, Taro Kano, the popular minister-in-charge of the vaccination program, who is a more liberal-leaning iconoclast than Kishida and was Japan’s former foreign and defence minister, Sanae Takaichi, who was one of the few female members of the Abe Cabinet and a former communications minister, are some of the leaders who intend to run the election for the party leadership.
It remains too early to predict the fallout of this sudden change in leadership for Japan’s politics. With memories of leadership instability during 2006-2011 still fresh, the LDP will surely attempt to signal unity and stability and avoid a return of revolving-door leaders. Within the LDP much will depend on the actions of former prime ministers Abe and Taro Aso. Both of them by the dint of controlling large factions within the ruling party, are kingmakers in this leadership election. Japan’s policies vis-à-vis international relations, domestic economy, trade and other matters are likely to continue as the same party is almost assured to remain in power. Following the 2012 return of the LDP to power under Abe and the collapse of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), splintering into smaller less effective parties, Japan’s developing into a Westminster-style democracy, in which power would pass back and forth between the conservative LDP and the progressive DPJ remains an elusive dream.
